Describing the uncertainty associated with a model prediction should be a matter of professional integrity for the modeller, however it presents significant computational and mathematical challenges.
Our research focus has allowed the development of a suite of methodologies that allow a robust and rigorous description of model prediction uncertainty for a range of differing modelling problems, that are efficient enough to be used in everyday best modelling practice.
The application of these methodologies is currently being achieved via consulting services to clients with high risk modelling problems.
In addition a workshop was recently held at the 2006 New Zealand Hydrological Society conference in Christchurch, in an endeavour to disseminate these methodologies to other modelling project work. A second Workshop is scheduled for 2008. A monograph on model prediction uncertainty is also scheduled for completion in 2008.
List of Products and Services:
Examples of consulting services
- Demonstration of application of prediction uncertainty methodologies to energy sector modelling.
- Application of prediction uncertainty methologies in resource management flow modeling used to guide regional water allocation policy.
- Application of prediction uncertainty methodologies in contaminant transport modelling used as basis of well protection zone rules.
Workshops
Moore, C., and Bidwell, V. (2006) Uncertainty in model predictions. Presented by Catherine Moore and Vince Bidwell in association with the New Zealand Hydrological Society Conference, November 2006, Christchurch.
Key contacts
Lincoln Ventures Ltd | PO Box 133, Lincoln | Christchurch 7640
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